Nissan Leaf recharching in Amsterdam, the Netherlands
In 2050, the world will count about 9 billion inhabitants. The potential for increased vehicle ownership in emerging markets, in particular China and India, is huge (accounting for 50% of the projected growth). But as the transport sector depends more than 98% on oil , and it produces large emissions of CO2 which accelerate global warming, which let us wonder : Will electricity replace oil in transportation ? My answer would be : I don’t think so.
Electric vehicles : a costly alternative
First of all, oil has a technical advantage over electricity : it can easily be built, is cheaper, whereas electricity would require more investment carrying more risk. In addition, it requires less technological developments. Indeed, to use electricity in the transportation, it requires to develop infrastructures to charge the vehicles, and it is costly.
Furthermore, the switch from oil to electricity will be costly and will take years to be achieved. Indeed, according to a report made by the General Commission for Sustainable Development, « the cost of the battery remains a major challenge in the short to medium term competitiveness of the electric vehicle » since it is still very expensive. People will prefer buying a car working with oil rather than an electric vehicle since the price will be less expensive and cars working with oil exist since 1901.
the problem of short battery autonomy
Moreover, there is another drawback since all-electric vehicle (that runs only from a rechargeable battery), have a short autonomy : from 100 to 150 kilometers . We are far from achieving the construction of electric vehicles with ultra-high efficiency battery. At the moment, all electric vehicles are not competitive on the market and will require public support. This is why oil will still be predominant concerning the transportation sector.
Cost-benefit calculation
Finally, we can mention the fact oil is a sector supported by a powerful lobby that ensure its interests. And as the date of the oil peak is still under debate, the cost-benefit calculation shows transportation working thanks to oil is more interesting in terms of economic costs. So, in the next decades to come, electricity won’t replace oil in transportation, at least not with the current context.
Raul Shimabuku
Tags: alternative, car, China, CO2 emissions, Commissariat général au développement durable, cost, electric cars, electric vehicles, electricity, emerging markets, energy, IEA, India, oil, transportation
« The oil peak is far from happening ». What are your sources? This affirmation is far from being obvious. See the book and demonstration of Richard Heinberg in « The party’s over » for example.
What evolution of oil prices did you take into account to say that oil prices will remain « cheap »?
Thanks for opening the debate Aude76.
We believe that the precise date of the « peak oil », past or future, is still under debate. The International Agency said it happened in 2006, but others don’t think so, like the American departement of Energy. We based our statement on the fact there is an uncertainty concerning the global oil reserves (read the 2005 Carbon dioxide capture and storage report made by the International Panel on Climate Change, which says that « predicting the pace at which use of fossil fuels will fall is far from simple because of the many different factors involved. »).
We do not say electricity WILL NEVER replace oil in transportation, we just say that because the technology is less developed, and more expensive, and because of the current context (economic depression) people are not likely to drive all-electric cars tomorrow that is to say on the short-term.
Concerning oil prices, we dind’t say they won’t rise, and we DIDN’T SAY OIL IS « CHEAP ». We think that even if the prices are doomed to rise to reached the 2008 level ($135) by 2035, we don’t think people will switch NOW to all-electric cars since these cars will still be more expensive than oil cars. Read carefully. We also mentionned the fact the oil lobby is very powerful, and we can both agree on the fact it plays an important part in the fact all-electric vehicles are not an option right now.
But as we have intellectual honnesty, we are going to replace this affirmation and say that the question is still under debate.
Thanks for your feedback Audrey, and we hope to read more of your comments on our blog !
Thank you for your answer. I know that you never wrote that the price of oil will stay « cheap » but i asked for this precision because of the sentence « People will prefer buying a car working with oil rather than an electric vehicle since the price will be less expensive and cars working with oil exist since 1901. » In a sense, i could conclude that people will prefer buying oil car because the price of oil will stay at a level meaning a lower cost than electric cars. But who knows at which price of oil & electric cars people will switch from one to another… We could somehow use environmental modelling for these previsions. But it means to attribute a price of oil for the years of prevision. (Just to explain why i asked you this).
Thank you for the article by the way, i also agree with the aim of your purpose. It’s obvisous that « people won’t switch NOW to all-electric cars since these cars will still be more expensive than oil cars ». I just read with a critical sense, since we can find a lot of articles defending a thesis or the contrary with the same impression of professionalism, objectivity and intellectual honesty !
Looking forward to reading your future articles
I am glad we could discuss this issue. Of course we didn’t mean that oil will be cheaper than electricity, but just that the oil-car is now cheaper than an all-electric one, or one working thanks to a mix of oil and electricity.
I’m also glad you understand our point is not to promote oil or car working thanks to oil, but to underline the fact that for now electricity won’t replace oil in transportation. It is a business-based statement.
We like your critical sense of reading or articles and you will always be more than welcome to correct us when you think we are wrong, or when you’ll want to add facts we didn’t mention or didn’t know about. We really want or blog to be a platform where every opinion can be heard !
Thanks again for your comment, we are looking forward to reading your next comment and reactions too.